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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 59

San Francisco 49ers 20 – Los Angeles Rams 35

What Actually Happened

(8:36) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right intended for 23-C.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by 1-E.Forbes at SF 43. 1-E.Forbes to SF 38 for 5 yards (85-G.Kittle).

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.14 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 59, worth -2.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 18, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model