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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 57

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(9:03) 7-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to LA 9, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-X.Smith to LA 14 for 5 yards (33-S.Neal).

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.43 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 57, worth -2.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 17, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP