Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 42

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(9:20) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to DEN 2, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.49 EP
67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 42, worth -2.55 EP

KICK -0.97 EP

49% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
51% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model