LV @ DEN — 4th & Data

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Thursday 2025-11-06 · 20:15 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 9.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

23.0%

DEN

77.0%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

LV offense: -0.146 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
QB edge to DEN: Bo Nix (DEN) +0.139 vs Geno Smith (LV) -0.037 EPA/dropback
DEN offense: +0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
DEN defense: -0.054 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
LV defense: +0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LV 17

–

DEN 25

Projected margin: DEN by 8 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

LV

Aidan O'Connell QB Out Wrist

Adam Butler DT Questionable Back

Lonnie Johnson S Questionable Fibula

Isaiah Pola-Mao S Questionable Hip

DEN

Pat Surtain II CB Out Pectoral

Nate Adkins TE Out Knee

Marvin Mims Jr. WR Out Concussion

P.J. Locke S Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 7

–

DEN 10

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 25 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 03:06 TD LV (3:06) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 6 – DEN 0
Q2 02:45 TD DEN (2:45) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 11-T.Franklin for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 7 – DEN 6
Q3 00:07 FG DEN (:07) 3-W.Lutz 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. LV-27-T.McCollum was injured during the play. LV 7 – DEN 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 LV 4th & 8 at the 42

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 49%

(9:20) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to DEN 2, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.
Q1 DEN 4th & 1 at the 89

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP

p(convert) 76%

(7:12) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 30 yards to DEN 41, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
Q1 DEN 4th & 13 at the 83

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(1:40) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 51 yards to LV 32, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 81-A.Bachman to LV 42 for 10 yards (34-J.Skinner). PENALTY on LV-30-D.Holmes, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 32.
Q2 LV 4th & 18 at the 76

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25%

(14:39) 6-A.Cole to LV 11 for -13 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at LV 11. 6-A.Cole punts 43 yards to DEN 33, out of bounds.
Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 65

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(12:05) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 36 yards to LV 29, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
Q2 LV 4th & 12 at the 41

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 52%

(9:06) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to DEN 1, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.
Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 90

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.67 EP

p(convert) 76%

(7:46) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 38 yards to DEN 48, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds. PENALTY on DEN-34-J.Skinner, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 48.
Q2 LV 4th & 5 at the 38

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 60%

(6:03) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at DEN 47 for -9 yards (9-T.Hufanga).
Q2 LV 4th & 12 at the 67

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(2:00) 6-A.Cole punts 39 yards to DEN 28, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 83-M.Bandy to DEN 27 for -1 yards (50-J.Bobenmoyer; 44-T.Eichenberg).
Q3 DEN 4th & 12 at the 93

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(14:03) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 54 yards to LV 39, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 81-A.Bachman pushed ob at DEN 46 for 15 yards (92-D.Tillman). PENALTY on LV-27-T.McCollum, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 39.
Q3 LV 4th & 2 at the 63

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP

p(convert) 58%

(12:27) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to DEN 16, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 83-M.Bandy.
Q3 DEN 4th & 6 at the 41

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP

p(convert) 43% p(FG) 52%

(5:39) 3-W.Lutz 59 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Q3 DEN 4th & 16 at the 39

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 57%

(3:05) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.
Q3 LV 4th & 16 at the 86

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(1:37) 6-A.Cole punt is BLOCKED by 34-J.Skinner, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, RECOVERED by DEN-28-T.Badie at LV 12. 28-T.Badie pushed ob at LV 12 for no gain (87-M.Mayer).
Q3 DEN 4th & 12 at the 14

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 95%

(:07) 3-W.Lutz 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. LV-27-T.McCollum was injured during the play.
Q4 LV 4th & 11 at the 70

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(13:56) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to DEN 28, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds. PENALTY on LV-25-D.Richardson, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 28.
Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 63

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46%

(13:01) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 45 yards to LV 18, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 81-A.Bachman to LV 21 for 3 yards (46-A.Prentice; 82-A.Trautman). ** Injury Update: LV-27-T.McCollum has returned to the game. PENALTY on LV-23-D.Laube, Illegal Blindside Block, 10 yards, enforced at LV 20.
Q4 LV 4th & 16 at the 48

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24% p(FG) 33%

(8:42) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.
Q4 LV 4th & 6 at the 30 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 78%

(4:30) 8-D.Carlson 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.