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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 41

Denver Broncos 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(5:39) 3-W.Lutz 59 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.75 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 41, worth -1.54 EP
KICK -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT +0.44 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth +0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP