Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 16 at the 39

Denver Broncos 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(3:05) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.60 EP
72% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 39, worth -1.57 EP

KICK +0.18 EP

57% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
43% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 48, worth -2.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model