Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 16 at the 86

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(1:37) 6-A.Cole punt is BLOCKED by 34-J.Skinner, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, RECOVERED by DEN-28-T.Badie at LV 12. 28-T.Badie pushed ob at LV 12 for no gain (87-M.Mayer).

The Three Options

GO -3.44 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.85 EP
72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 86, worth -5.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model