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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 14

Denver Broncos 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(:07) 3-W.Lutz 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. LV-27-T.McCollum was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +2.01 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.20 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 14, worth +0.33 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT +0.53 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model