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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 30

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(4:30) 8-D.Carlson 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.06 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 40, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model