4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 18 at the 76

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(14:39) 6-A.Cole to LV 11 for -13 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at LV 11. 6-A.Cole punts 43 yards to DEN 33, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.88 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.94 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 76, worth -4.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 34, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model