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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 69

New England Patriots 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:48) 17-B.Baringer punts 44 yards to TB 25, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.64 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 27, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP