Win Probability
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- NE offense: +0.127 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- TB defense: -0.053 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- TB on 7 more days rest than NE
- NE defense: -0.070 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- QB edge to TB: Baker Mayfield (TB) +0.165 vs Drake Maye (NE) +0.190 EPA/dropback
New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →
Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 10
NE
TB
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 11:30 TD TB (11:30) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 2-E.Egbuka for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – TB 6
- Q1 00:11 TD NE (:11) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 18-K.Williams for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN [43-C.Braswell]. NE 6 – TB 7
- Q2 07:19 FG TB (7:19) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NE 7 – TB 10
- Q2 00:02 TD NE (:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 8-S.Diggs for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 13 – TB 10
- Q3 14:22 TD NE (14:22) 32-T.Henderson right guard for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 20 – TB 10
- Q3 04:19 TD TB (4:19) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 15-T.Johnson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 21 – TB 16
- Q4 01:43 TD NE (1:43) 32-T.Henderson left end for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 27 – TB 16
- Q4 00:38 TD TB (:38) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 15-T.Johnson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 28 – TB 22
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 NE 4th & 1 at the 57Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 73%
(9:19) 95-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 26-T.Jennings left tackle to NE 45 for 2 yards (54-L.David).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 NE 4th & 10 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(8:30) 17-B.Baringer punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Ashby, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 TB 4th & 6 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 22%
(6:10) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to NE 5, Center-86-E.Deckers. 25-M.Jones to NE 6 for 1 yard (45-D.Jones).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 NE 4th & 6 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(1:55) 17-B.Baringer punts 38 yards to TB 23, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 TB 4th & 13 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(:22) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to NE 36, Center-86-E.Deckers. 25-M.Jones to NE 46 for 10 yards (81-R.Miller). PENALTY on NE-41-B.Schooler, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 38.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 TB 4th & 2 at the 62Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EPp(convert) 61%
(13:22) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to NE 14, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 25-M.Jones. PENALTY on NE-22-C.Woods, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at NE 14.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NE 4th & 3 at the 69Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EPp(convert) 57%
(11:48) 17-B.Baringer punts 44 yards to TB 25, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 TB 4th & 8 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 93%
(7:19) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%
(:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 8-S.Diggs for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 TB 4th & 15 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(11:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 35 yards to NE 31, Center-86-E.Deckers. 25-M.Jones MUFFS catch, and recovers at NE 30. NE-25-M.Jones was injured during the play.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 NE 4th & 7 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(10:12) 17-B.Baringer punts 59 yards to TB 8, Center-47-J.Ashby. 19-K.Johnson to TB 15 for 7 yards (24-D.Pettus). PENALTY on TB-29-C.Izien, Illegal Blindside Block, 7 yards, enforced at TB 15.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 NE 4th & 5 at the 42Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 48%
(1:19) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short middle to 8-S.Diggs (27-Z.McCollum).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 TB 4th & 13 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 28%
(12:43) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-86-E.Deckers, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 71Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EPp(convert) 74%
(10:21) 17-B.Baringer punts 52 yards to TB 19, Center-47-J.Ashby. 19-K.Johnson to TB 24 for 5 yards (22-C.Woods). ** Injury Update: NE-15-M.Mapu has returned to the game.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 TB 4th & 8 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(8:10) 9-R.Dixon punts 32 yards to NE 42, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 TB 4th & 3 at the 27 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 83%
(1:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-R.White to NE 30 for -3 yards (21-J.Hawkins) [97-M.Williams].
See the full breakdown →
