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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 18

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(7:19) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.30 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 18, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 28, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model