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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 1

New England Patriots 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 8-S.Diggs for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.86 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +2.88 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.91 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.02 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model