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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 57

New England Patriots 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:19) 95-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 26-T.Jennings left tackle to NE 45 for 2 yards (54-L.David).

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.96 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 17, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model