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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 13 at the 50

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(12:43) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-86-E.Deckers, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.54 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 50, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -1.43 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model