Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 74

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 – New England Patriots 21

(8:10) 9-R.Dixon punts 32 yards to NE 42, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.51 EP
60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 74, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model