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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 53

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(6:10) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to NE 5, Center-86-E.Deckers. 25-M.Jones to NE 6 for 1 yard (45-D.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.96 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 53, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -1.50 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 15, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model