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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 61

New England Patriots 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 17-B.Baringer punts 38 yards to TB 23, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.16 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model