Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 13 at the 80

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(:22) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to NE 36, Center-86-E.Deckers. 25-M.Jones to NE 46 for 10 yards (81-R.Miller). PENALTY on NE-41-B.Schooler, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 38.

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.57 EP
67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 80, worth -4.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model