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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 66

New Orleans Saints 3 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:29) 7-T.Hill up the middle to NO 36 for 2 yards (52-T.Gipson; 95-D.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 24, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model