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New Orleans Saints

HC Kellen Moore
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Dave Canales
Sunday 2025-11-09 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US 💨 Windy Spread 5.5 O/U 38.5

Win Probability

NO
30.1%
CAR
69.9%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: -0.138 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to CAR: Bryce Young (CAR) -0.045 vs Tyler Shough (NO) -0.267 EPA/dropback
  • CAR defense: +0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • NO defense: +0.062 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 18
–
CAR 23
Projected margin: CAR by 5 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

NO

Barry Wesley T Out Hip
Taliese Fuaga T Out Ankle
Alvin Kamara RB Questionable Ankle
Jonah Williams DE Questionable Shoulder
Jack Stoll TE Questionable Ankle
Bryan Bresee DT Questionable Back

CAR

Chandler Zavala G Out Elbow
Brycen Tremayne WR Questionable Hip
Tetairoa McMillan WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 17
–
CAR 7

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:04 TD CAR (8:04) 5-R.Dowdle right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – CAR 6
  • Q1 02:55 FG NO (2:55) 19-B.Grupe 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. NO 3 – CAR 7
  • Q2 09:31 TD NO (9:31) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 9 – CAR 7
  • Q4 10:29 TD NO (10:29) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 83-J.Johnson for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 16 – CAR 7

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 99%

    (2:55) 19-B.Grupe 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 5 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 19%

    (:56) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to NO 2, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 3 at the 91
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (15:00) 32-K.Kroeger punts 54 yards to CAR 37, Center-49-Z.Wood. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 47 for 10 yards (58-C.Rumph; 43-M.Davis).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (11:29) 7-T.Hill up the middle to NO 36 for 2 yards (52-T.Gipson; 95-D.Brown).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 3 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (7:51) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to NO 8, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-D.Pettis.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 4 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (6:21) 32-K.Kroeger punts 52 yards to CAR 8, Center-49-Z.Wood. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 13 for 5 yards (44-I.Stalbird).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 7 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (4:09) 6-S.Martin punts 59 yards to NO 25, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-D.Pettis pushed ob at NO 26 for 1 yard (57-B.Martin-Scott; 0-J.Sanders). PENALTY on NO-53-J.Ford, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 26. Penalty on NO-27-I.Yiadom, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 9 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 37%

    (:27) 32-K.Kroeger punts 26 yards to CAR 19, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (12:57) 32-K.Kroeger punts 45 yards to CAR 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 23-T.Etienne.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 7 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 76%

    (6:36) 10-R.Fitzgerald 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-N.Shepherd), Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin, recovered by CAR-68-D.Lewis at NO 30. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-R.Fitzgerald 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-N.Shepherd), Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. 94-C.Jordan MUFFS catch at NO 29, RECOVERED by CAR-68-D.Lewis at NO 30.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 25%

    (1:20) 41-A.Kamara left tackle to CAR 48 for 2 yards (95-D.Brown; 98-D.Wonnum).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 4 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 72%

    (13:42) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at CAR 40 for -8 yards (11-N.Scourton).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 45%

    (7:40) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 30-C.Hubbard to NO 41 for 1 yard (96-C.Granderson).