Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 84

Carolina Panthers 7 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(4:09) 6-S.Martin punts 59 yards to NO 25, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-D.Pettis pushed ob at NO 26 for 1 yard (57-B.Martin-Scott; 0-J.Sanders). PENALTY on NO-53-J.Ford, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 26. Penalty on NO-27-I.Yiadom, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.84 EP
56% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 84, worth -4.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model