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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 45

New Orleans Saints 10 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(:27) 32-K.Kroeger punts 26 yards to CAR 19, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.51 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 45, worth -1.36 EP
KICK -0.25 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model