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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 50

New Orleans Saints 10 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:20) 41-A.Kamara left tackle to CAR 48 for 2 yards (95-D.Brown; 98-D.Wonnum).

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.69 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.81 EP
KICK -1.75 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model