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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 32

New Orleans Saints 10 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(13:42) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at CAR 40 for -8 yards (11-N.Scourton).

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.18 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.47 EP
  • 72% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model