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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 42

Carolina Panthers 7 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(7:40) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 30-C.Hubbard to NO 41 for 1 yard (96-C.Granderson).

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.07 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 42, worth -2.03 EP
KICK -0.71 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model