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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 91

New Orleans Saints 3 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 32-K.Kroeger punts 54 yards to CAR 37, Center-49-Z.Wood. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 47 for 10 yards (58-C.Rumph; 43-M.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth -0.09 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 91, worth -5.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.95 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 48, worth -2.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP