4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 59

Green Bay Packers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(8:36) 19-D.Whelan punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.81 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 59, worth -2.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 18, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP