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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
Monday 2025-11-10 · 20:15 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

PHI
43.9%
GB
56.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.152 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • PHI offense: +0.095 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • PHI on 7 more days rest than GB
  • QB edge to GB: Jordan Love (GB) +0.201 vs Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.147 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

PHI 23
–
GB 24
Projected margin: GB by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

PHI

Jaire Alexander CB Out Knee
Cam Jurgens C Out Knee
Nolan Smith LB Questionable Triceps
Jakorian Bennett CB Questionable Pectoral
Willie Lampkin C Questionable Knee

GB

Nate Hobbs CB Out Knee
Lukas Van Ness DE Out Foot
Zach Bako-Bewele T Questionable Back
Dontayvion Wicks WR Questionable Calf
Savion Williams WR Questionable Foot
Matthew Golden WR Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 10
–
GB 7

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 30 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q3 09:02 FG PHI (9:02) 4-J.Elliott 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 3 – GB 0
  • Q4 10:42 TD PHI (10:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 6-D.Smith for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 9 – GB 0
  • Q4 05:54 TD GB (5:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs right tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 10 – GB 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 52%

    (11:52) (No Huddle) 10-J.Love up the middle to PHI 39 for 2 yards (58-J.Hunt).

  • Q1 GB 4th & 20 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 32%

    (9:42) 19-D.Whelan punts 40 yards to PHI 9, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 87-X.Gipson.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (15:00) 19-D.Whelan punts 56 yards to PHI 3, Center-42-M.Orzech. 87-X.Gipson to PHI 21 for 18 yards (33-E.Williams; 39-Z.Anderson).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 7 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:40) 10-B.Mann punts 66 yards to GB 10, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 87-R.Doubs to GB 22 for 12 yards (54-J.Trotter; 48-P.Johnson).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 43%

    (8:36) 19-D.Whelan punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (7:35) 10-B.Mann punts 31 yards to GB 41, Center-57-C.Adomitis, downed by PHI-7-K.Ringo.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 8 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (6:48) 19-D.Whelan punts 44 yards to PHI 13, Center-42-M.Orzech. 87-X.Gipson to PHI 26 for 13 yards (59-T.Hopper; 58-I.McDuffie).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 17 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (2:07) 10-B.Mann punts 45 yards to GB 22, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 87-R.Doubs to GB 32 for 10 yards (48-P.Johnson).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (:05) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 8 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 91%

    (9:02) 4-J.Elliott 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 9 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 52%

    (4:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 16-B.Melton.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 9 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:40) 10-B.Mann punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Touchback. PHI-48-P.Johnson was injured during the play.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 11 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 55%

    (12:53) 19-D.Whelan punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 13 at the 48 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 34%

    (2:25) 10-B.Mann punts 38 yards to GB 10, Center-57-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 25-K.Nixon.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 56 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74%

    (1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs right end to GB 40 for -4 yards (50-J.Phillips, 32-R.Blankenship). FUMBLES (32-R.Blankenship), RECOVERED by PHI-32-R.Blankenship at GB 39. Penalty on GB, Illegal Formation, declined.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 6 at the 35 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.35 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 68%

    (:33) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 11-A.Brown (24-C.Valentine).