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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 72

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:35) 10-B.Mann punts 31 yards to GB 41, Center-57-C.Adomitis, downed by PHI-7-K.Ringo.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.33 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP