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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 57

Green Bay Packers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(6:48) 19-D.Whelan punts 44 yards to PHI 13, Center-42-M.Orzech. 87-X.Gipson to PHI 26 for 13 yards (59-T.Hopper; 58-I.McDuffie).

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.83 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 57, worth -2.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 17, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model