4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 17 at the 67

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:07) 10-B.Mann punts 45 yards to GB 22, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 87-R.Doubs to GB 32 for 10 yards (48-P.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.46 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 25, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model