4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 41

Green Bay Packers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(11:52) (No Huddle) 10-J.Love up the middle to PHI 39 for 2 yards (58-J.Hunt).

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.70 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 41, worth -1.75 EP
KICK -0.17 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model