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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 21

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:02) 4-J.Elliott 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.03 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model