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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Green Bay Packers
4th & 9 at the 41
Green Bay Packers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3
What Actually Happened
(4:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 16-B.Melton.
The Three Options
GO
+0.21 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.90 EP
- 63% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 41, worth -1.93 EP
KICK
-0.35 EP
- 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
- 48% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT
-0.06 EP
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.06 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
