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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 40

Green Bay Packers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(12:53) 19-D.Whelan punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.06 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 40, worth -1.92 EP
KICK -0.22 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model