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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 48

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:25) 10-B.Mann punts 38 yards to GB 10, Center-57-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 25-K.Nixon.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.95 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 48, worth -1.78 EP
KICK -0.55 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model