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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 56

Green Bay Packers 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs right end to GB 40 for -4 yards (50-J.Phillips, 32-R.Blankenship). FUMBLES (32-R.Blankenship), RECOVERED by PHI-32-R.Blankenship at GB 39. Penalty on GB, Illegal Formation, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.59 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 56, worth -2.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 17, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model