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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 35

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(:33) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 11-A.Brown (24-C.Valentine).

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
What Happened
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +1.20 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 35, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 45, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.35 EP