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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 76

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:40) 10-B.Mann punts 66 yards to GB 10, Center-57-C.Adomitis. 87-R.Doubs to GB 22 for 12 yards (54-J.Trotter; 48-P.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.17 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model