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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 27

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 2

What Actually Happened

(13:14) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.49 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.60 EP
KICK +0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.13 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 37, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model