PIT @ LAC — 4th & Data

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HC Mike Tomlin

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HC Jim Harbaugh

Sunday 2025-11-09 · 20:20 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

PIT

41.4%

LAC

58.6%

🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

PIT offense: +0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
LAC offense: +0.051 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
Indoors — weather neutralised
PIT defense: +0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
Justin Herbert (LAC): +0.097 EPA/dropback in prior starts
LAC defense: -0.034 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 24

–

LAC 26

Projected margin: LAC by 2 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

PIT

Isaac Seumalo G Out Pectoral

Jabrill Peppers S Out Quadricep

Cole Holcomb LB Out Illness

Scott Miller WR Out Finger

Cory Trice Jr. CB Questionable Hamstring

Will Howard QB Questionable Hand

LAC

Bobby Hart T Out Knee

Tarheeb Still CB Doubtful Knee

Josh Harris LS Questionable Chest

Da'Shawn Hand DE Questionable Groin

Benjamin St-Juste CB Questionable Groin

Deane Leonard CB Questionable Knee

KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 10

–

LAC 25

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 10:30 FG PIT (10:30) 9-C.Boswell 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman. PIT 3 – LAC 0
Q1 05:17 SAF LAC (5:17) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT -3 for -12 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack) [52-K.Mack], and recovers at PIT -5. 8-A.Rodgers tackled in End Zone, SAFETY. PIT 3 – LAC 2
Q2 07:35 FG LAC (7:35) 11-C.Dicker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. PIT 3 – LAC 5
Q2 00:16 TD LAC (:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 15-L.McConkey for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 3 – LAC 11
Q3 06:12 FG LAC (6:12) 11-C.Dicker 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. PIT 3 – LAC 15
Q4 09:29 TD LAC (9:29) (Shotgun) 30-K.Vidal left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 3 – LAC 21
Q4 04:58 FG LAC (4:58) 11-C.Dicker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. PIT 3 – LAC 25
Q4 03:04 TD PIT (3:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 10-R.Wilson for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 9 – LAC 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 PIT 4th & 4 at the 54

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP

p(convert) 50%

(13:37) 3-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to LAC 11, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
Q1 LAC 4th & 9 at the 88

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(12:11) 16-J.Scott punts 34 yards to LAC 46, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.
Q1 PIT 4th & 5 at the 41

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP

p(convert) 44% p(FG) 60%

(10:30) 9-C.Boswell 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
Q1 LAC 4th & 1 at the 60

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 73%

(8:59) 10-J.Herbert up the middle to LAC 42 for 2 yards (6-P.Queen; 97-Ca.Heyward).
Q1 LAC 4th & 3 at the 51

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP

p(convert) 55% p(FG) 35%

(6:54) 16-J.Scott punts 45 yards to PIT 6, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-33-D.Leonard.
Q1 LAC 4th & 9 at the 65

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(3:22) 16-J.Scott punts 55 yards to PIT 10, Center-47-J.Harris. 85-K.Williams to PIT 21 for 11 yards (40-K.Williamson).
Q2 PIT 4th & 8 at the 27

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 86%

(13:14) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
Q2 LAC 4th & 10 at the 14

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

(7:35) 11-C.Dicker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Q2 PIT 4th & 8 at the 70

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(5:55) 3-C.Waitman punts 51 yards to LAC 19, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
Q2 LAC 4th & 11 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(3:07) 16-J.Scott punts 48 yards to PIT 23, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 85-K.Williams.
Q3 LAC 4th & 15 at the 58

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(11:52) 16-J.Scott punts 50 yards to PIT 8, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 85-K.Williams.
Q3 PIT 4th & 5 at the 73

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48%

(8:48) 3-C.Waitman punts 45 yards to LAC 28, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 12-D.Davis to LAC 36 for 8 yards (10-R.Wilson). PENALTY on LAC-58-M.Wax, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 33.
Q3 LAC 4th & 4 at the 41

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP

p(convert) 49% p(FG) 60%

(6:12) 11-C.Dicker 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Q3 PIT 4th & 8 at the 80

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(5:16) 3-C.Waitman punts 44 yards to LAC 36, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
Q3 LAC 4th & 2 at the 37

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP

p(convert) 60% p(FG) 69%

(:49) 11-C.Dicker 55 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 10

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37% p(FG) 97%

(12:44) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 4-D.Metcalf (20-C.Hart).
Q4 LAC 4th & 19 at the 48

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26% p(FG) 42%

(6:35) 16-J.Scott punts 31 yards to PIT 17, Center-47-J.Harris. 85-K.Williams MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LAC-53-D.Phillips at PIT 21.
Q4 LAC 4th & 13 at the 24 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 89%

(4:58) 11-C.Dicker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.