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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 14

Los Angeles Chargers 2 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(7:35) 11-C.Dicker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.91 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model