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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 71

Los Angeles Chargers 5 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(3:07) 16-J.Scott punts 48 yards to PIT 23, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 85-K.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.98 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 71, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model