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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 54

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 3-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to LAC 11, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.60 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 54, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 16, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP