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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 15 at the 58

Los Angeles Chargers 12 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(11:52) 16-J.Scott punts 50 yards to PIT 8, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 85-K.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.18 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model