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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 80

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 15

What Actually Happened

(5:16) 3-C.Waitman punts 44 yards to LAC 36, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.73 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 37, worth -1.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model