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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 10

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 15

What Actually Happened

(12:44) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 4-D.Metcalf (20-C.Hart).

The Three Options

GO +2.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.75 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model