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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 41

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:30) 9-C.Boswell 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.47 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • 60% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP